View in Vital Signs- Thriving Species and Food Web
- Salmon
- Indicator
- Number of natural-origin Chinook salmon on spawning grounds
- Vital Sign Indicator
- Each Unit (number)
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By 2050, all Chinook salmon populations increase, and at least 50 percent of the populations reach their recovery goals.
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Neala Kendall
- Contributing Partners
- Last Updated
- 03/20/2025 23:03:41
This indicator evaluates the abundance and trends of the 22 Chinook salmon populations by measuring the number of natural-origin adult fish on the spawning grounds of five Puget Sound regions. Abundance estimates here do not include hatchery-origin fish (with few exceptions) or Chinook taken in harvest or by predators like orcas. The indicator is intended to reflect the goal of achieving wild population recovery of Puget Sound Chinook, which are federally listed as threatened.
Annual percent change in spawner abundance from 1999 (year of Endangered Species Act listing) to 2023 for each Puget Sound Chinook salmon population, shown by geographic region. 19 of 22 populations are shown; abundance data were not available at the necessary spatial scale for three populations (Mid-Hood Canal, Puyallup River, and Sammamish River). The lines show the 25th to 75th credibility intervals (CIs). CIs represent a range of values the true annual percent change likely falls within. CIs for only one population (Snoqualmie River) contain zero. CIs greater than zero suggest increasing spawner abundance from 1999 to 2023.
Chinook salmon are a cultural icon of the Pacific Northwest and are listed as “Threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA). Currently they are about one-third as abundant as they were in the early 1900s. Returning Chinook are highly prized by anglers and commercial fisherman, are guaranteed to be available to Indian Tribes by treaties signed with the federal government, and are a favorite food of orca whales.
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These results reflect the most up-to-date data and model for salmon abundance as of 2/3/2025 (provided by WDFW), though we are still working to address concerns with the data and model from our partners, including Tribes. If you have questions, please reach out to Kenna Kuhn (kenna.kuhn@psp.wa.gov).
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There have been small signs of recovery of Puget Sound Chinook populations in each biogeographic region since they were listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1999. Almost all populations are increasing in natural-origin, naturally-spawning abundance in recent years (i.e., the credibility interval for only one population overlaps with zero in the percent change figure). However, the trends vary across populations with some exhibiting only very small change. Thus, combined with uncertainty about the underlying data and model, our conclusion about progress of the populations of Puget Sound Chinook salmon is “Mixed Results.”
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While most populations remain far below the recovery planning targets adopted by NOAA Fisheries, some are doing better (see the indicator map on the full indicator report). For instance, the recent 5-year abundance geomean Suiattle spring Chinook salmon, Upper Sauk River spring Chinook salmon, and Upper Skagit River summer Chinook salmon are at 78%, 41%, and 40%, respectively, of their low productivity planning targets. Several populations, however, are at a much lower percent of their targets.
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The Puget Sound Partnership has set a recovery target for all Chinook salmon populations to increase and at least half of the populations to reach their recovery goals by 2050.
- Monitoring Program
Chinook salmon spawner abundance data are collected annually by WDFW and tribal co-manager staff as part of baseline monitoring and data collection efforts.
- Data Source
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), Salmon Population Indicators (SPi) abundance data
Biologists typically estimate annual spawner abundance by counting the number of redds (gravel nests) in a river each year. Redds are counted by walking the stream or from boats or aircraft. In many populations, some hatchery-origin salmon are present on the spawning grounds along with natural-origin salmon, complicating the estimates of natural-origin abundance. The proportions of spawners that were of natural versus hatchery origin are typically estimated based on the composition of carcasses of each origin. These proportions are applied to the total spawning population to estimate the number of natural-origin versus hatchery-origin spawners.
Chinook salmon population spawner abundance is reported here as the number of natural-origin fish estimated on the spawning grounds (spawning naturally) for all populations except in the Skagit River basin (Suiattle, Cascade, Upper Sauk, Lower Sauk, Upper Skagit, and Lower Skagit populations), for which total spawner abundance is reported. However, the proportion of hatchery-origin, naturally-spawning fish in these populations is expected to have been consistently low (e.g., < 5 percent) since 1999 based on information and estimated values in the Marblemount Hatchery Spring Chinook Hatchery and Genetic Management Plan (HGMP) and that hatchery's Summer Chinook HGMP. Thus, we chose to use the available data for total number of naturally-spawning Chinook salmon in these analyses. We will continue to try to gather natural-origin, naturally-spawning Chinook salmon abundance data from these populations for future analyses.
Our analysis of abundance change over time answers the question:
Has the spawner abundance of each Chinook salmon population changed compared to their abundance in 1999 when Puget Sound Chinook were listed by NOAA Fisheries under the Endangered Species Act (ESA)?
We chose ESA listing in 1999 as the baseline reference period because this date denotes the start of deliberate management efforts to improve the status of the population. It should be noted that the 1999-2003 period was one of relatively favorable ocean conditions (i.e., a “cool” PDO phase) for Puget Sound Chinook salmon, where we would expect better marine survival than during a warm PDO phase.
In this trend evaluation, we fit a multivariate autoregressive state space random walk with drift (MARSS-RWD) model to the log of population spawner abundance data for all populations from 1999 to 2023. The model structure was identical to that used by NOAA Fisheries’ Northwest Fisheries Science Center in its 5-year status review with a few exceptions (Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2015). The slope of each population's smoothed abundance values was converted to percent change per year. If data were not available during these periods for a given population, data from the first or most recent years with available data were used.
To assess each population’s spawner abundance levels, we compared their recent 5-year geometric mean (“geomean”) of smoothed abundance data from the MARSS-RWD model to their low productivity planning target for abundance to get a percent of target abundance. Planning targets for Chinook abundance have been estimated for both low and high productivity scenarios. At low productivity, the population needs to be larger compared to that at high productivity in order to survive and be resilient to poorer habitat and environmental conditions, changes, and catastrophes. We evaluated the recent 5-year geomeans relative to the low productivity planning targets because the populations are thought to be in a low productivity phase and it is a more conservative assessment. Find more information on Chinook planning targets for abundance and productivity in chapter four of the “Technical Recovery Criteria and Goals for Puget Sound Chinook Salmon of the Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Plan (2007).” Please note that the planning targets for abundance were adopted by NOAA Fisheries and are distinct from the Vital Sign indicator recovery target.
For more information about the methods used for this indicator, please see the Status and Trends Analysis of Salmon Abundance Data methods report.
References:
Northwest Fisheries Science Center. 2015. Status review update for Pacific salmon and steelhead listed under the Endangered Species Act: Pacific Northwest.
National Marine Fisheries Service, Shared Strategy for Puget Sound. 2007. Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Plan, Volume 1.
- Critical Definitions
- Natural-origin fish: fish produced by parents spawning in natural environments (not in a hatchery)
- Natural-origin adult fish on the spawning ground: fish produced by parents spawning in natural environments that themselves returned to spawn in a natural environment
- Population spawner abundance: number of natural-origin Chinook salmon estimated on the spawning grounds in a population (for instance, the North Fork Nooksack River)
- Hatchery-origin fish: fish produced by parents spawned in a hatchery
- Endangered Species Act (ESA): Puget Sound Chinook salmon were listed as Threatened under the ESA in 1999. There are 22 NOAA Fisheries-defined distinct independent populations (DIP; generally known as “populations”) in the Puget Sound Chinook evolutionarily significant unit (ESU)
- MARSS-RWD: multivariate autoregressive state space random walk with drift model, which was the statistical model used in our analyses
Most Puget Sound Chinook salmon populations are currently well below abundance levels (planning targets) needed for population recovery and reduced risk of extinction (Table 1). Population spawner abundance values fluctuate from year to year, often with no clear linear trends. To visualize the year–to-year adult abundance estimates and the data underlying our results, please consult the fish abundance information compiled by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and reported in the State of the Salmon.
NOAA Fisheries is the federal agency responsible for the recovery of ESA-listed salmonid species. They report trends as part of their status reviews every 5 years. In their most recent available status review (Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2022), they analyzed the 15-year trend over a continuous period from 2004 to 2019 using a similar model employed for the time trend analysis described in the methods section above. NOAA Fisheries found that the natural-origin spawner abundance of three Chinook salmon populations increased, three had no trends, and 16 decreased (statistically significant changes) over the 2004 to 2019 period. Because fewer populations had negative trends in an earlier period (1990-2005), they concluded, “There is a general decline in natural-origin spawner abundance across all [populations] in the most-recent fifteen years.”
*(5-year geomean/low productivity planning target)*100
**No planning target
***Natural-origin, naturally-spawning abundance data not available at necessary spatial scale
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Salmon recovery in Puget Sound has been guided over the years by collaborative processes. The Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Plan was developed in 2005 by regional experts and adopted by NOAA Fisheries in 2007 to meet obligations under the ESA. Subsequently, local experts in each watershed worked together to craft 16 individual chapters of the Recovery Plan to specify local recovery goals, priority recovery actions, and monitoring needs.
In 2017, the Chinook Salmon Implementation Strategy consolidated strategies from the 2005 Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Plan to reflect lessons learned in the last 10 years. The Implementation Strategy and the Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Plan cover the same geographic area, but their targets differ. While the Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Plan largely focuses on specific salmon habitats needed to support Chinook salmon, the Chinook Salmon Implementation Strategy concentrates on the regional support necessary to enable watersheds to implement recovery strategies in their local areas. These recovery planning efforts are now linked with each other and with the Puget Sound Action Agenda so that changes in one will inform changes in the others.
Despite continued investments to restore habitat, reduce harvest, and improve hatchery management, the region is not seeing significant progress in increasing Puget Sound Chinook salmon abundance. Chinook salmon utilize a variety of habitats, from freshwater to the ocean, and are therefore vulnerable to stressors associated with change and degradation of habitats across a large area. Furthermore, many of the factors already implicated in the lack of recovery of Chinook salmon are exacerbated by the bio-physical impacts of climate change. From the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission 2020 State of Our Watersheds Report:
"A consistent trend identified in the 2020 State of Our Watersheds Report is that key habitat features, such as riparian vegetation, habitat connectivity and streamflows, continue to be imperiled by human activities. This extensive loss and degradation of habitat, changing climate and ocean conditions threaten salmon, tribal cultures and tribal treaty-reserved rights, wildlife habitat, water quality and western Washington’s economy and quality of life."
The Salish Sea Marine Survival Project seeks to address the critical question: What are the causes of salmon and steelhead decline in the Salish Sea? The Project identified two primary drivers behind declining juvenile salmon survival in the Salish Sea: changes in food supply and increase in predators. Please refer to the Project webpage for more information on the research to assess salmon condition and survival.
Salmon Vital Sign Indicator Reporting Plan
Recreation and Conservation Office's State of Salmon in Watersheds Report and Salmon Abundance Dashboard
Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission State of Our Watersheds Report
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- Reporting Instructions
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1993-2003, 2013-2023
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